Insights del mercado en 140 – Semana del 6 al 12 de octubre

¿Qué podemos esperar del mercado esta semana? 140 para tratar las cuatro áreas clave para tus finanzas y la economía global más un «Y si…»

Macro

Frankfurt and Brazil – Even if Mr Draghi eventually lets rip with full blown QE what could be the impact on capital flows into emerging markets? Precedents are divergent. Institute of International Finance data show that asset purchases by the Bank of Japan gave no boost to net capital outflows from the country. On the contrary Japanese portfolio holdings of foreign securities are lower today than at the end of 2012. Federal Reserve actions, however, matter a lot – note last year’s taper tantrum and current EM weakness amid US rate hike concerns. So what about the ECB? In so far as QE impacts EM portfolio inflows via lower interest rate expectations, the IIF finds this effect to be half as powerful for the eurozone as the US. Mr Draghi needs to be twice as generous to shield EM investors from the receding Fed largesse.

Strategy

Big game hunting – Finally giving in to Carl Icahn’s demands this week eBay has learned that $35bn is a persuasive sum. But it is not the total size of his portfolio that matters. Mr Icahn’s influence comes from concentration. Today he owns just 25 companies compared with 40 names pre-crisis. These larger positions concentrate his mind too. For investments worth more than a tenth of Mr Icahn’s portfolio his winners have made five times more money than his losers on average, according to Novus data, whereas gains simply match losses on bets worth less than 3.5 per cent of his portfolio. And fewer names leads to bigger companies – even Apple cannot escape the activist’s attention. The bigger the better it seems. Mr Icahn has made fifteen times more money than he has lost when investing in companies with a market cap over $50bn.

Stocks

Magic Windows – Poor Microsoft. The world stopped turning when Apple revealed a new watch but barely wobbled on its axis on the announcement of Windows 10 this week. That is disrespectful of a software product that alone has generated the equivalent of 80 per cent of the entire operating profits of Apple this millennium. What is more Windows’ operating margins are superior to the celestial 50-60 per cent for the iPhone. And as for gross profits – they are not much shy of revenues! Which means that serious cash is coming Satya Nadella’s way if the new chief executive can persuade some of the world’s billion or so Windows users to upgrade. Despite the supposed death of PCs the free cash flow margin at Microsoft still approaches 30 per cent – in line with Facebook’s, a third higher than Apple’s and four times Google’s.

Finance

Pimco – See? Bill Gross leaving Pimco has pushed the S&P 500 down 2 per cent, Brazilian shares 4 per cent and caused the euro to collapse. Yields on 10-year treasuries have plunged six basis points. But hang on – that means bond prices are firmer. That doesn’t sound very systemic. Nor does the fact gold and financial stocks have traded sidewise while BlackRock’s bond ETF attracted $800m in two days. The reality is that the only pain being caused by the world’s second largest mutual fund is being felt by Allianz. As well as losing a chief executive the market cap of Pimco’s owner has fallen $6bn since Mr Gross flew to Colorado – equivalent to $38bn of outflows assuming a one percent management fee and 15 times multiple. So far, that’s an over-reaction. But it won’t be systemic even if it’s not.

Digestif

Fed watching – In business and finance circles you frequently hear sentences along the lines of «All eyes are on the Fed this week…» And each quarter we pour over Janet Yellen’s every syllable. Well sorry to break it to you but according to the latest Pew Research Centre study on public awareness barely a quarter of American adults even know who the Federal Reserve chairman is. That response was flattered by knowledgeable seniors. Only 14 per cent of those below 30 years old could name her – less than half the number who replied correctly that there were more Shiites than Sunnis in Iran. Worryingly not even a college education seems to bring the chairman to mind. Just 45 per cent of graduates answered with Janet. So if Americans aren’t Fed watching, you can bet noone in Europe, Asia and Africa is either.